People are strongly influenced by the emotional state they are in. Later, when thinking back on an event, they may not remember how emotionally charged they were in the moment. This may lead to inconsistent predictions about future behavior.
Research by Morewedge (2005), Ariely and Lowenstein (2006) and Wilson (2003) shows that memory of emotions, and predictions of future emotions is not accurate, and can be easily influenced. If you do not get the emotional rating in the moment when someone is having an emotion, then that person’s future memory of the event can be biased by up to 3x.
When people forecast how they will feel in the future, or how they felt in the past, they often extrapolate based on their current situation: also known as “implicit bias”.
When people are in a “hot” state (hungry/mad/aroused/stressed), they usually predict their future needs or thoughts only in that “hot” state.
When people are in a “cold” state (full/relaxed/chill/bored) they usually predict their future needs or thoughts only in that “cold” state.
The theory is that hot states act as an amplifier of sorts. Whatever feelings you have in a cold state are amplified several times over in a hot state. This intensification of feelings can change priorities and create tunnel vision.
Takeaways
- Avoid asking people to predict how they will feel in the future, since they are unlikely to be accurate with that prediction.
- Instead of using surveys that are emailed at some point after an experience to find out how someone felt about an event in the past, consider using more immediate feedback mechanisms.
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